The corn grain harvester market has great potential in 2024
The domestic corn harvester industry is truly a complex world, different from the grain harvesters of European and American countries. Domestic corn harvesters can be divided into ear pickers, stem and ear harvesters, silage harvesters, fresh corn harvesters, corn grain harvesters, and so on. In the past two years, there has even been a corn and soybean harvester, including backpack, self-propelled, suspended, as well as models such as track, wheel, wheel shoe exchange, half wheel and half shoe, and wheel shoe combination.Where there is a martial arts world, there will be disputes, and the game rules of the martial arts world are the emergence of new players and the dismal departure of the elderly. Since domestic corn harvesters are in the same industry, they will certainly follow the rules of the industry. Since the implementation of agricultural machinery purchase subsidies in 2004, the evolution speed of corn harvester products has significantly accelerated. Every few years, a hot model or new category will appear, and there will also be "genetic mutations" in this process. For example, after 2017, there will also be "retrogression phenomena" in both stem and ear harvesters, such as the wheat and corn dual-purpose harvesters around 2012.
1、 The advantages of direct harvesting of corn kernels
There are two types of harvesting methods in China: segmented harvesting and direct grain harvesting. Due to various constraints, most corn in China has been unable to achieve mechanized direct grain harvesting for a long time. Therefore, mechanical picking (or manual)+mechanical threshing (or manual)+natural drying has become the mainstream method.
However, segmented harvesting has many intermediate links, high labor costs, multiple uncontrollable factors, and a high probability of loss and mold. Compared to this, grain harvesting can complete multiple tasks such as grafting, straw crushing, peeling, and threshing in one go. For agricultural production with labor shortages, direct grain harvesting is of great significance.
Only by comparison can identification be made. Compared with segmented harvesters, direct harvesting of corn kernels has the following prominent characteristics:
One is to save time and effort. The corn harvester can complete multiple tasks such as corn ear picking, peeling, and threshing at once. During the harvesting season, the grain harvester enters the field to complete the harvesting operation, and the harvester follows in the field or waits for the grain to be received. After receiving the grain, it is directly pulled to the drying tower for dehydration, and then directly enters the steel plate grain bin for refrigeration. The whole process does not involve the grain falling to the ground or losing weight, and it is a continuous flow operation, which eliminates many links and labor costs in the middle.
The third is to reduce losses. The grain harvesting machine reduces the transportation, drying, and threshing of fruit ears, resulting in cost savings and increased efficiency. According to scientific research data, in Xinjiang, the cost of grain harvesting is reduced by 450 yuan compared to mechanical harvesting, by 700 yuan in Heilongjiang, by 450 yuan in Jilin, and by 300 yuan in Henan.
The fifth is to increase economic benefits. In addition to the previously mentioned fact that direct harvesting of grains can reduce uncontrollable losses during the process, corn ears are threshed in the field, and the moisture content of the grains is relatively high, which is commonly known as wet grains. Selling grains on the ground calculates the moisture and weight at that time, so this excess moisture increases yield and farmers increase their income.
It can be seen that the benefits of direct harvesting of corn kernels are obvious and self-evident. From the perspective of national food security and commercial value, China should vigorously promote the direct harvesting model of corn kernels and focus on supporting corn kernels harvesters.
2、 5% and 10%, there is a lot of space in the corn kernel harvester
Many things have beautiful prospects, but the reality is cruel. Let's take a look at the current situation of corn kernel harvesting in China and the development of corn kernel harvesters.
Corn is the crop with the largest planting area in China. The annual planting area fluctuates between 620 million and 650 million mu. Its size depends on the global political and economic situation, national agricultural policies, international and domestic food prices, and even the COVID-19, such as black swan and grey rhinoceros events.
But overall, as a 4-carbon plant, corn is increasing in planting area nationwide and even globally. In the long run, domestic corn will continue to occupy the planting area of grain crops such as soybeans, wheat, sorghum, and rice. In this sense, domestic agricultural machinery enterprises, including corn harvester enterprises, should pay more attention to machines related to corn production, because the long-term benefits are predictable.
So what is the situation in the corn kernel harvester industry? Due to the limitations of traditional agronomy and the objective conditions of a two crop planting model, segmented harvesting has always had an absolute advantage in domestic corn harvesting. This can be seen from the comparison of sales of ear picking machines and grain harvesters in the annual agricultural machinery purchase subsidy system.
There is data indicating that in 2022, 74893 corn harvesters were subsidized and sold nationwide, achieving a sales revenue of 16.267 billion yuan. Among them, 3137 grain harvesting corn harvesters were sold, achieving a sales revenue of 165900 yuan. Therefore, the sales of corn grain harvesters accounted for 4% and the sales revenue accounted for 10%.
It can be seen that whether it is the planting area of corn kernels or the sales proportion of corn kernels, there is still a lot of development space for corn kernel harvesters in the later stage. Currently, domestic corn kernel harvesting is just starting, and after overcoming various influencing factors, it will inevitably achieve the same machine yield as in Europe and America.
3、 Why are you optimistic about corn grain harvesters?
The market that has not been fully satisfied is the opportunity market, and of course, the size or potential size of this market must be sufficiently large. It is obvious that a planting area of 650 million acres, a 75% machine yield, and a 5% grain harvest ratio, as well as factors such as large-scale and high standard farmland construction, are all conducive to the increase of corn planting area and the development of grain type harvesters.
Scaled agricultural production and efficient agricultural machinery are twin brothers. Scaling cannot do without mechanization, which can promote larger scale agricultural production. Conversely, small-scale agricultural economies naturally reject mechanization.
It is obvious that China's agricultural production is continuously developing towards scale, which is both a policy direction and a historical inevitability. The scale of industrial and service industries will inevitably drag the promotion of agricultural scale.
The country attaches greater importance to the production of staple crops, and is promoting large-scale construction of high standard farmland. As of the end of 2022, China has built a total of 1 billion mu of high standard farmland. From 2023 to 2030, China plans to build 200 million mu of new high standard farmland, while transforming and upgrading 280 million mu, striving to turn all 1.546 billion mu of permanent basic farmland into high standard farmland by around 2035.
Another way to indirectly increase the scale of planting is through the social service models such as land trusteeship and agricultural services strongly supported by the state, which essentially transform small-scale production into large-scale production.
Scaled planting means a pursuit of efficiency and stronger cost awareness. At the same time, only large-scale agricultural production can afford high-efficiency large-scale grain harvesters such as 800000-150000 yuan. Segmented harvesting in small-scale agriculture is more cost-effective, and large-scale agriculture will inevitably move towards direct grain harvesting.
2. The promotion of genetically modified corn varieties is beneficial for mechanized operations
In 2022, China finally approved three genetically modified corn varieties for commercialization, which means the era of genetically modified corn in China has arrived. The commercialization of genetically modified corn in China will bring about a series of significant changes, and even transform the global corn industry pattern and global food trade pattern.
Due to the low production cost, high yield, and superior comprehensive economic benefits of genetically modified corn, this will attract more capital to enter the corn planting industry. At the same time, more land will be converted to genetically modified corn, which will further increase the corn planting area and lead to a trend of singularity in domestic crop cultivation.
In short, the large-scale promotion of genetically modified corn will inevitably lead to an increase in corn planting area and an improvement in the level of scale. Scale planting is definitely beneficial for the sales of combine harvesters. Large scale genetically modified corn planting will attract a large amount of capital to enter the corn planting process, and new varieties with short growth periods and high yields will continue to emerge. Even in the Huanghuaihai region, which is not suitable for seed harvesting, there will be a huge demand for seed harvesting, which is beneficial for seed harvesters.
3. The comparative advantage of having a versatile and cost-effective device
There are several types of threshing methods for grain combine harvesters, corresponding to different threshing mechanisms: tangential flow+progressive flow, tangential flow+transverse axis flow, small longitudinal axis flow, medium longitudinal axis flow, large longitudinal axis flow, double longitudinal axis flow, tangential flow+longitudinal axis flow, tangential flow+double longitudinal axis flow, etc.
There are so many ways of threshing, which can be summarized as two types: horizontal and vertical flow. The biggest difference between longitudinal flow and transverse flow is that transverse flow is more suitable for harvesting wheat that is easy to thresh, but it is not effective for other crops with high moisture content or that are already difficult to thresh. The biggest advantage of longitudinal flow is that the threshing drum is long, the threshing area is large, the process time is long, the threshing is clean, and the grain loss is small.
At present, the terminal selling price of corn harvesters sold domestically ranges from 600000 to 1.3 million yuan. With such a high price, if only one crop is harvested, the time for buyers to recoup the cost will be very long. This investment is not cost-effective. Therefore, almost all domestic and foreign corn harvester companies are adopting a vertical flow technology route, with the only difference being the combination of large, medium, and small vertical, single vertical and double vertical, and whether or not there is a cutting flow. For example, Weichai Lewo GK120 has a large single vertical flow, while Kaisi 4099 and Deer R230 have a double vertical flow.
At this point, everyone must have a concept that there is no single function corn harvester abroad. In foreign countries, there is a grain combine harvester. In China, due to different subsidy standards for wheat and corn harvesters, the government supports the increase in corn machine yield. In order to support the same level of combine harvesters, corn machine subsidies are higher than wheat machines. Therefore, many grain harvesters report as corn grain harvesters, but in fact, they also engage in wheat, sorghum, soybeans, miscellaneous grains, and even rice harvesting, all thanks to the longitudinal flow threshing institutions.
In fact, many grain harvesters participate in national cross regional operations every year after changing their cutting heads. Different cutting heads can harvest different crops, with multiple functions and multiple crops, which is the advantage of grain harvesters. Therefore, we are optimistic about the development prospects of this type of agricultural machinery.
4. The core market grain harvesting model is being rapidly promoted
Corn grain harvesting is suitable when the moisture content is below 25%, and the damage rate is the lowest when the moisture content is between 20% and 22%. It is best used in the "three provinces and one region" of the northwest and northeast regions, which is a crop planting area with one season per year. Because the harvesting time of corn in the one season planting area is long, corn can retain sufficient growth time in the field until the moisture content is below 25% before harvesting. There are about 150 million mu of corn suitable for grain harvesting in the northeast region, and currently only about 20 million mu, so the potential of the northeast region is great.
But it's not without a solution. There are two methods. One is variety improvement, which involves cultivating varieties with short growth periods and maintaining a moisture content below 25% during harvest. The other is to build sufficient drying towers for rapid dehydration, processing, and storage after harvest. These two aspects are also being carried out simultaneously. In recent years, the demand for grain machines in the Huang Huai Hai region has been rapidly increasing, as shown in the following figure.
In short, regions such as the northwest, northeast, and Huanghuaihai that are suitable or require corn kernel harvesting are making great efforts to promote direct corn kernel harvesting, which is beneficial for corn kernel machines.
When it comes to corn kernel harvesters, the familiar models used to be the Deere R230, Case 4088, and Kele Harvest D370. However, in recent years, domestic corn kernel harvesters have started to rise, with a very obvious substitution effect, and it is possible that domestic substitution will be fully completed in the near future.
Domestic corn grain harvesting enterprises, worth paying attention to are several specialized enterprises. Shandong Yafeng's grain harvester market has expanded rapidly. This agricultural machinery production enterprise located in Zibo, Shandong has adopted a highly competitive technology route and started researching and developing large-scale corn grain harvesters from the beginning of entering the agricultural machinery industry. The Yafeng New Era 9166 corn grain harvester, which has been sharpened in ten years and iterated, has a sales volume of about 200 units per year in China and is also exported to Russia and Central Asian countries.
Several other rising stars, such as Tiankai Zhongrui (Shengchunyu), Jin Dafeng, and Jianghua Machinery (Wannian Li), are also worth paying attention to. Of course, there are also large enterprises such as Weichai Lewo, Zoomlion Heavy Industry, YTO Dongfanghong, and Mushen. Overall, there are nearly twenty enterprises that have entered the domestic grain harvester market, including large enterprises and enterprises with strong professional capabilities.
One obvious advantage of domestic grain machines is their price. The domestic price of the Case 4099 ranges from 1.1 million to 1.5 million yuan, the Kole D370 is priced at 800000 to 1.3 million yuan, the Yafeng 9166 is priced at 500000 to 700000 yuan, and the Lovol 4YL-6K is priced at around 550000 yuan. All of these models are domestically produced, and imported grain machines such as the Case and Krass are priced higher. Even second-hand imported corn machines are priced higher than domestic new ones.
As the domestic corn kernel machine industry chain becomes increasingly mature, domestic substitution will be completed quickly, followed by domestic substitution and export.
Conclusion: The existing segmented harvesting models are transitional in nature, such as corn
