The only reason for depression is prosperity! 2021 tractor reappears watershed!

According to the normal development law, a kind of agricultural opportunity experiences four stages: cultivation period, growth period, stability and recession period. Then, it starts again and again. If the graph is used to represent normal distribution, it is rising on one side and falling after reaching the peak. At present, the development curve of domestic dragline industry is in the watershed of growth and decline.

Many times in history were triggered by small events. The author thinks that the subsidy policy of 2021 is the most likely to change the trend of tractor industry.
On March 19, the Ministry of Finance issued the "fully doing the fiscal support for agriculture in the year of the opening of the 14th five year plan" to help the overall revitalization of the countryside and the modernization of agricultural and rural areas. The paper clearly puts forward the guidelines for the implementation of subsidies for agricultural machinery purchase from 2021 to 2023, optimizes the classification of subsidy machines and tools, explores and develops pilot projects of comprehensive subsidy for agricultural machinery purchase, increases subsidies for intelligent compound high-end agricultural machinery products, machines and tools required for agricultural production in Hilly and mountainous areas, and gradually reduces the number of land ownership in the region Subsidies for relatively backward wheeled tractors and other machines and tools will strengthen the subsidy for the purchase of complete equipment for grain drying facilities after the production. "
The author thinks that this paper sends a strong signal, that is, the tractor ownership is too large, the national agricultural machinery purchase subsidy policy changes from encouraging support to restriction and pressure on tractors. The national agricultural machinery purchase policy is the biggest bottom force to support the tractor industry. The change of subsidy policy direction means the arrival of the watershed of tractor industry.
In 2021, the domestic tractor industry will also enter a new development stage, which is: transformation and upgrading, quality improvement and efficiency improvement, industry shuffle and industrial chain output.
Specifically, the author believes that since 2021, the following major changes will happen in domestic tractor industry, which will be closely related to the tractor industry, even everyone in the agricultural machinery industry, and will affect the overall trend of the industry, including every enterprise and individual slave.
Change one: growth stops abruptly, and the industry will fall into a long-term downturn
Growth can cover up many unpleasant things, and growth is always pleasant. Since 2004, the domestic tractor industry has experienced 16 years of growth. The middle period of 2014-2020 is consolidation period. If there is no subsidy policy, such a long time in normal economic environment and the high-level growth is rare, tractor enterprises and practitioners have long been accustomed to growth, and enterprises are also used to growing in the environment of growth.
"The only reason for depression is prosperity!", After a long period of growth, the market needs to digest excessive social inventory and overdraft demand, so it must be a decline and depression. According to the subsidy system data, 416000 tractors will be sold in China in 2020, which is a record high, but on the other hand, it overdraw the demand of the next few years in an extreme way, Become the last straw to crush camels.
The only reason for depression is prosperity. The other interpretation of prosperity is that the longer the boom period is, the longer the depression period is, so the domestic tractor industry will be in a downturn for a long time. The enterprises will be crossing the winter in the dark, and all enterprises should be prepared for the winter.
Depression and depression are not terrible. This is the economic law. The process can be changed or compressed, but the process cannot be changed. But the terrible thing is the mentality of the enterprise. Domestic tractor enterprises have been lying on the hotbed of subsidy policy for too long. Many enterprises have lost the ability of market competition, and all economic activities of enterprises are designed on the assumption of growth, Once the industry does not grow or falls into negative growth, many enterprises will be eliminated or trapped in the business predicament because they are not adapted to the new environment and new changes.
The author thinks that from 2021, domestic tractor industry will enter a long period of downturn, and will experience the pain of 3-litre country 4 in the middle, so there will be four phases of "demand saturation period, transformation and upgrading period, policy digestion period and emission switching period".
Enterprises should face correctly, change their mentality and actively promote internal change to adapt to the new development stage. From the perspective of evolution, the surviving enterprises are neither the largest nor the strongest, but the ones that can adapt to the environment most.
Change 2: the big screen of shuffling is open, and most enterprises should exit the market competition
China's tractor demand accounts for one fifth of the world, but China has 80% of the world's tractor manufacturers.
According to the subsidy system data, there are 80 tractor manufacturers in 2010, more than 200 in 2020, while in Europe and the United States and Japan and South Korea, there are no more than 15 tractor enterprises. The mature market of developed countries has already completed the industry integration. The original hundreds of enterprises either quit the market or merged into the head enterprises such as John deer, kessnew Netherlands, AGCO, jiubaotian.
The domestic agricultural machinery subsidy policy is similar to the "general benefit system", which basically has no threshold for the production enterprises, and the cost of entry and exit is very low. Therefore, in recent years, with Weifang, Ningbo and Luoyang as the center, nearly 200 tractor manufacturers have been newly established. Strictly speaking, these enterprises are not manufacturers but only assembly plants.
Most of these assembly plants are opportunity oriented. The power to enter the tractor industry is the subsidy policy for purchasing agricultural machinery, which makes policy dividends and opportunity money. The profit source is high-level tractor subsidies. However, from the end of 2020, the subsidy quota for tractor single machine has been greatly reduced from Heilongjiang, Jilin, Shandong and other provincial markets, According to the draft of the guidance on subsidies for the purchase of national agricultural machinery from 2021 to 2023, the subsidy limit of tractors will be reduced in 2021, and the reduction of high-power tractors will be greater, while 180 horsepower and above are more important areas for improvement. Although the new guidance is still not issued, But the local government has taken the lead in lowering the subsidy quota of tractor.
The subsidy limit has been greatly reduced, which affects the enthusiasm of users to purchase the machine first. The users who can buy or not will stop the idea of buying the machine. Users with rigid demand will wait and see, and users who want to update the machine will delay the purchase of new machines.
Overall, the active people will suffer from the impact of purchasing machines, and the demand will shrink. In order to maintain sales volume and digest excess capacity, the enterprises will release water at prices, and the overall profit space of the industry will shrink dramatically. Under the circumstances of no profit, small and medium-sized enterprises without scale advantages, strong background and capital strength will be forced to withdraw from market competition, and the policy will help large enterprises and large groups shuffle their cards, During 2007, the screen of wheat machine industry shuffling will be staged again. After this service, domestic tractor industry can enter the rational development stage.
Change 3: head enterprises focus on the main channel, and small brands will be hidden in the subdivision area
Entering the new development stage, the development of domestic tractor enterprises will be divided, and the big and medium-sized enterprises of large enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises will choose the opposite direction of development.
The large enterprises such as Dongfang Hong, Lovol heavy industry, Changzhou Dongfeng and Changzhou Changfa will pursue scale effect through related diversification. Tractors will become the main business of these enterprises. These enterprises will compete fiercely on the tractor in Datian, which is called the main channel of tractor. Specifically, the direction of competition will be power shift, CVT, CVT, CVT, CVT, CVT, CVT, etc Intelligent, new energy, green and environmental protection represent advanced direction and advanced productivity tractor.
However, the river will not be large until it is trickled down. Many small and medium-sized enterprises will enter the subdivision field and market segments. These large enterprises do not care to enter or not find in a short time, such as small and medium-sized tractors, light track tractors, orchard tractors, mountain tractors, paddy transport tractors, disk tractors, deformation tractors, etc, Overall, small enterprises and small brands will become the market supplement, and the combination of large brands with complete finished products of domestic tractor family.
Before 2021, domestic tractor industry enterprises adopted the homogenization competition strategy, the growth dividend pursued by the big enterprises, the policy dividends and the post advantages pursued by the small enterprises. However, after 2021, with the unprecedented compression of industry profits, the big enterprises will pursue the scale advantage, and the small enterprises rely on the differentiation to survive.
Change 4: the value of the stock resources is prominent, and the second-hand tractor ushers in the high light moment
The advantage of second-hand tractor is that the price is cheaper than the new machine. This advantage is established naturally in the environment of pure market competition. However, with the subsidy policy for purchasing agricultural machinery, the price advantage of the second mobile phone still exists, but the gap is very small. The subsidy ratio of new machines is 30%, and the advantages of second-hand machines are very small, This is why millions of second-hand tractors of good quality are in China, which is the most fundamental reason why the domestic second-hand tractor trade has been inactive.
However, this situation will change after 2021. The high light time of the second mobile phone will soon come. There are two new forces behind it to promote it: first, after the subsidy limit of tractor single machine is reduced, the price advantage of the two mobile phones relative to the new one is becoming prominent, and the second mobile phone has the real price advantage; Second, the state subsidy policy for purchasing agricultural machinery relaxed the policy of enjoying subsidies on agricultural machinery disposal. People familiar with the matter revealed that the newly issued subsidy policy has full disposal rights for newly purchased agricultural machinery users without limiting time and region. If this policy can be implemented, it means that more high-quality second-hand tractors will enter the market for trading, and the number of users who buy second-hand mobile phones will increase, Second hand tractors trade in high volumes.
The leopard change of the second mobile phone market will also pull away the development of several derivative sub sectors, such as tractor overhaul, tractor remanufacturing, sharing tractor, tractor leasing, tractor accessories, finance, insurance, export of second mobile phones, etc. the prosperity of mobile phones will bring about the coming of post market period.
Change 5: the industrial chain will become more prominent as the industrial chain changes from divergence to contraction
The three largest tractor industry clusters have been formed in Weifang, Henan, and sunI Changning, Zhejiang Province. Among them, Weifang has the strongest strength, and 80% of tractor enterprises in China are distributed in Weifang as the center.
The author observed that in recent years, a very important change in domestic tractor industry is the spread of production from these three industrial clusters to the whole country. Many provinces and places take tractors as the pillar of cultivating local agricultural machinery industry. Each province has several tractor enterprises that are supported by several key enterprises, such as the Sanlei heavy industry in Beijing mountain, and the special of Hebei.
The author thinks that the most noteworthy is tractor enterprises in Xinjiang and Heiji Liao provinces. There are more than ten tractor manufacturers in Heilongjiang, mainly established in the past five years. There are also nearly ten in Jilin. In the northeast, Jichi is the most important thing to pay attention to. In 2020, more than 5000 tractors are sold, and the other is the "scrap iron" tractor of Jilin Shunkun Electric Vehicle Co., Ltd, The second row corn machine of "scrap iron" has the first domestic share for three years.
With the turning point of tractor industry coming, the enthusiasm of domestic investment tractor will also rapidly fade. The distribution of domestic drag industry resources will also change from divergence to convergence. Manufacturing resources will shrink from areas without supporting advantages and scale advantages to industrial clusters and industrial clusters. At the same time, the scale advantages and coordination advantages of industrial clusters will be more obvious.
The author is more optimistic about the industrial cluster with strong internal self-control ability, especially the industrial cluster and large enterprise group with the self-control capability of engine, transmission system, hydraulic system and intelligent control system.
In the later stage, the domestic tractor industry competition in the world is probably the competition between the big industrial cluster and the industrial cluster, the competition between the industrial cluster and the single large enterprise group. At present, Weifang area needs to be transformed from industrial cluster to real industrial cluster.
Change 6: competition forces domestic brands to open up real globalization.
If the domestic market is large enough and continues to prosper, domestic agricultural machinery enterprises will not go abroad. After all, no one will be foolish to go far away.
But with the policy change and the aggravation of domestic competition, enterprises who don't want to quit the competition will be forced to step out of the national door to the global market.
Domestic market can help domestic brands complete the original accumulation, but the real globalization should be in the domestic market downturn when the enterprise will have the power, passive internationalization in Europe and the United States, Japan and South Korea countries tractor enterprises have experienced.
At present, the globalization of domestic tractor brands is also facing an opportunity which is difficult to meet in thousands of years, which is COVID-19 worldwide.
China is the best country to control the epidemic. The number of foreign infections is still increasing at a rate of 250000-300000 per day. The epidemic has affected the production organization and sales of transnational corporations. The epidemic has destroyed and hit the agricultural machinery industry in some countries. Therefore, since the second half of 2020, the demand for agricultural machinery and accessories in China has been strong in the foreign market, Many export-oriented agricultural machinery enterprises have full orders and their capacity reaches the limit. The most headache of the products produced is not enough containers and containers.
Strong sales will create a strong brand, domestic low-end agricultural machinery has a strong cost-effective advantage, as long as foreign customers use, will form a strong reputation effect, coupled with the endorsement of national brands, the reputation of domestic agricultural machinery will continue to increase, with strong sales, foreign parts system and service network will be established, The agricultural machinery industry in China can go out of the country and go to the global market in the form of the whole industrial chain, thus truly owning the position of China Agricultural Machinery Industry in the global agricultural machinery industry.